Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Compare and contrast between persepolis war and vietnam war Essay Example for Free

Look into between persepolis war and vietnam war Essay Realistic Novels demonstrating strife of war can be portrayed in various manners. These ways are controlled by the intended interest group and the creators choice of mood.The symbolism in Persepolis and the vietnam story are influenced by these decisions made by the creator. There are contrasts in the style of this book in which the peruser uses to show feeling, for example, the objective age gathering, the enthusiastic viewpoint just as the authenticity of the story. The symbolism which detail is shown in a mind boggling or basic way can both give the peruser understanding while at the same time depicting an alternate point of view simultaneously. Persepolis and the vietnam symbolism both utilize a highly contrasting realistic weight making a dull inclination appeared by the emotional style. They use enumerating out of sight like the shadowed fighters in the Vietnam pictures or splendid flashes of gunfire in Persepolis, in this manner giving the peruser an alternate point of view. The vietnam pictures gives a more inside and out style that gives so as to show the author’s message. In any case, the basic symbolism utilized in persepolis is to get a point across utilizing representative pictures and a clear style instead of in the vietnam pictures the portrayed lines and specifying draws out a particular feeling. The intended interest group in which the creator and additionally artist needs to contact influences the kind of symbolism and message they need to send out,such as a tale about the contention of war to kids can be unpretentious instead of show an unforgiving reality yet can both delineate a temperament of contention and battle. These two realistic styles can both hear over the emotional point of view of war being unfortunate by the emanata of battle seen with the characters to the peruser. The two of them look at the cruel reality without being excessively frightful. Persepolis utilizes a more cartooned outline to depict a virtuous viewpoint in this way having an intended interest group of youthful perusers. Interestingly, the Vietnam imagery’s viewpoint varies in the perspective. This shows the distinction in battling in the war as opposed to enduring the results, exhibiting a grown-up comprehension. War can pass on numerous feelings relying upon the writers/artists mind-set they need to pass on to the perusers by utilizing straightforward and additionally complex emanata and realistic load in comparable and various manners. Persepolis and the vietnam both incur a thoughtful feelings by showingâ the battles appeared by their focused on feelings and facial styles. Just as their comparable utilization of differentiation among light and darkshows an enthusiastic part of the contention of war. To differentiate the Vietnam pictures utilizes concealing and shadows to include increasingly pressure and coarseness showing an effective feeling. The Persepolis symbolism utilizes thick overwhelming blacks and whites with no concealing creation the pictures basic and the feelings it depicts to the peruser shallow and not as mind boggling. Taking everything into account these two works of realistic perusing can be differentiated and analyzed by just three classes of authenticity, target age gatherings, and feelings. These both shared the battles of the contention of war just as depicting various perspectives and points of view. Just as showing an undeniable age target. Despite the fact that they are comparable they are both diverse in indicating the contention of what goes on in a war.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Strategic Cost Management (SCM) GPBL Trimester Essay

Key Variance Analysis of a Firm Growth,Price, Profitability, Productivity Elements influencing its Profits and ensuing Cash Flow. Max. Word Count †3000 words This is an examination on a Strategic Variance Analysis for the productivity just as the Operating Cash stream. In this setting you have to take some basic presumptions in the event that you can't secure the pertinent quantitative subtleties. The quantitative subtleties you will require are as per the following: 1. Industry totals of the Units Produced and Sold 2. Picked Firm level subtleties of the Units Produced and Sold. 3. Info Output Ratio. This will require presumptions and maybe be limited distinctly to the materials. You have to play out a sensible measure of research to get these numbers. Quantitative subtleties might be given in Annual Reports of the organizations comprising the business you have thought of. Check sources, for example, the Capitaline. Service of Commerce and Industry, RBI, Planning commission, a f ew distributions, for example, the measurable blueprint of India and so on and so forth. You have to look at the accompanying: a) Select an Industry, utilize a proper support of having characterized the business by utilizing the ITC code, HSN or SIC grouping or some other that will have some widespread adequacy. b) Choose a Firm you would need to break down that comprises the Industry you have picked. c) If industry totals are not accessible characterize the business by recognizing the significant business players and afterward total their quantitative subtleties to make this an intermediary for the Industry or the market you would need to consider. d) Perform a Strategic Variance Analysis to divide the effect of Growth, Price and Productivity components in clarifying the effect on the adjustments in the benefits of the firm you have decided for the year with its ensuing year. Hence on the off chance that you are breaking down the Year 2011 contrast this and 2012 for the firm and th e business. e) Perform a vital fluctuation investigation on the working income for the firm picked. f) Conclude on system you accept the firm is embracing given the money related investigation you have done. Checking Parameters: 1. Decision of the Industry and the firm and its avocation. - [10 Marks] 2. Shown proof of the exploration done in acquiring data for focuses (a), (b) and (c). [30 Marks] 3. Basic Analysis of Points (d) and (e).[50 Marks] 4. Conclusion[10 Marks] <p

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Meeting Africas funding gap to meet the SDGs and how an MDP student is part of this ambitious objective COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog

Meeting Africas funding gap to meet the SDGs and how an MDP student is part of this ambitious objective COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog Africa faces an  annual funding gap of $1.3 trillion if it is to meet the SDGs by 2030.  MPA-DP student Ji Qi traveled to Kigali, Rwanda, as part of the program’s summer placement, to work at  The Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa  and look at how development banks can improve their performance against international best practices and benchmarks to contribute to the achievement of the  #SDGs  in the continent. In his own words Im really glad to be part of this ambitious continent-wide initiative which can help  turn the  development  banks into the true driving  force behind Africas sustainable  development.

Sunday, May 24, 2020

My Mom Had Her Freedom Back - 755 Words

Growing-up: His father eventually moved to a different city in Ohio and for the next two years he lived with mother who was now a single parent. He would visit his father on holidays and the summers. â€Å"I wanted to see my Dad as long as he wasn’t with my Mom. When they were together they were different people.† He recounted that after the separation the visits were always good. These times with his dad were happy. They had fun summers; there was lots of swimming, going places, and activities. A shift in his expression and tone changed when mentioned having to go back a single parent household for the school year. This was another evident and difficult transition. â€Å"My Mom had her freedom back. She would go to work, come home, and go to bowling leagues all the time. She’d get home at five, go bowl at six-thirty, and not get home till one in the morning.† He explained that now he really had to fend for himself. â€Å"Sometimes there was food in the f ridge, and sometimes not. So I ended up running the streets with my friends. We’d steal because we didn’t have food or money and started selling drugs.† We discussed this phase of his life which consisted of skipping school, hanging around the wrong influences, and running away. He realized that sometimes this was his only way of receiving affection and attention. When he disappeared, people went looking, and it made him feel like he was missed and loved. Eventually the tension and fights between him and his mother continued to escalate.Show MoreRelatedThe White Men1650 Words   |  7 Pagesyear of 1801, when my grandfather, Shalem and grandmother, Boshika were kidnapped from Africa. Coming to awful America was the scariest, heartbreaking time of their lives. As the white men took them away from their home and culture, they brought to America both an education and their faith in God and Jesus Christ. The White men checked the health of the Negroes and grouped th em according to their health and sex. Boshika was pregnant with my mom Ablimim. Shalem and Boshika named my mother when she wasRead MoreWhy I Am My Freedom At The Time Is Truly Freedom, Or Constraint?943 Words   |  4 Pagesto who we are today. But, it only takes one minimal choice to halt our future and steer us spiraling in a different direction. It’s with this ONE choice that years later led me to What Ifs? and regrets, and made me question whether my freedom at the time was truly freedom, or constraint. From a very young age, I was raised around horses. Through generations of Andersons’ riding was a given, a family trait, however, riding was never that important to me. I was taught to ride when I was just six yearsRead MorePolitical Identity Essay1064 Words   |  5 Pagesup of a mixture of multiple opinions and ideologies. The four main factors that go into someone’s political identity are their ethnic identity, national identity, political attitude, and political ideology. I decided to interview my mom and figure out a little bit about her political identity and how she stands on certain topics. The first factor of someone’s political identity is their ethnic identity. According to Essentials of Comparative Politics by Patrick O’Neil, ethnic identity is â€Å"a set ofRead MoreResearch Paper754 Words   |  4 Pagesabused by her plantation owner. One day she decided that she was going to escape and that’s exactly what she did. She made it off the plantation and eventually found some people that thought slavery was wrong and decided to hide Harriet in their attic. They then helped Harriet find all of the safe houses. Once Harriet made it to freedom in one of the northern states, she had a thought. She thought there were so many other slaves that were suffering and that needed someone to guide them to freedom. HarrietRead MoreArgumentative Essay On Freedom Of Religion1177 Words   |  5 Pagesand faith. Thanks to this wonderful Amendment, all sorts of religious practices have taken root in our country which is a country whose society is built on freedom . While all our freedoms are picturesque, I believe that the highest standing of them is freedom of religion. As stated in the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, freedom of religion averts our government from compelling citizens to practice any single kind of religion. Thanks to this marvelous Amendment, all kinds of religiousRead MoreThe Glass Castle Some Characters Seek Freedom From Society s Rules1095 Words   |  5 PagesIn The Glass Castle some characters seek freedom from society’s rules while others seek the comforts and security that come from a â€Å"normal† life. What is more important to children? Freedom or security? I am convinced that what matters most to children is security. They may seek freedom but to them freedom means running around. However, running around leads to chaos. Then chaos can lead to danger and when children feel endangered or they’ve fallen and got hurt they seek safety. Even if they liveRead MoreCinderella Perso nal Narrative Essay923 Words   |  4 Pagesdressed in white. I can hear my brother whispering in my ear, chills running down my spine as I realized what he was saying. â€Å"She is going to turn us into slaves. She is going to make us clean the toilet with toothbrushes and wash the floors on our hands and knees.† My stomach was churning. Something was wrong. Then everything registered, I was on the roller coaster of life and I didn’t put my seat belt on. I was falling. I looked around me and all I saw was white, her face appeared in front of meRead MoreEssay about My First Time Away From Home727 Words   |  3 PagesMy First Time Away From Home Leaving to go to college was my very first time away from home, and it took a lot of adjusting to a new surrounding. I didnt have my mom right by my side anymore and I needed to become more independent on doing things on my own. Adjusting to a new city, community, and school was a challenge because I was used to being in my own city, with my old friends, at my old school. I often got homesick and wanted to go home, but I soon adjusted. At first when I originallyRead MoreSummary Of Out The Door Jimmy Goes 844 Words   |  4 Pagessticks his head out, and hollers to his mom, â€Å" Mom I’m going to the park!.† Out the door Jimmy goes, hops on his bike and heads to the park. Jimmy later returns right on time for dinner, â€Å"Eat all your veggies!† , his mother says as he plays with his carrots. Off to bed he goes. *Ring* Ring* Jim wakes up after a long day at work and now his daughter is tugging on his pants to take her to the park. Being a parent of 2015 Jim knows he cannot treat it as it was back in the day when he was a kid. He keepsRead MoreDescriptive Personal Narrative Story746 Words   |  3 Pagesâ€Å"Yeah go ahead and run Trinity!!! Run like you always do!† My mom slurred sloppily from the front porch. I sprinted toward South Mission Beach. As I ran further, I heard the screen door close with a loud clannnnng†¦my mom still yelling drunken nonsense in the distance. That was nothing new. My eyes watered as I focused on my form. High knees†¦elbows straight†¦inhale†¦press†¦shoulders square†¦exhale... I put my earbuds in and thought back to when I was just a little girl on the Boca Islands of

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Cold War Ethical Reflection Free Essays

Reflection of the Cold War The Cold War, from 1945 to 1991, is one of the most important periods of time that has greatly influenced and shaped the modern world. It was not just a battle between two super powers, the USA and the Soviet Union, but also a clash of two really popular ideologies during that time. There was the American claim of fighting for freedom and democracy and the Soviet claims of fighting for the interests of the workers and the common people. We will write a custom essay sample on Cold War Ethical Reflection or any similar topic only for you Order Now Now in theory, these ideologies seemed ethical, but throughout this period, both countries’ actions severely opposed the ideologies they represented on numerous occasions. Some say it all came down to a competition of achieving the most power and influence and just using what they’re supposed to represent as a disguise to hide the true intention of their actions. Now this is partly true and in this reflection I will explain the cynicism caused by both superpowers and decide which one actually represented a greater evil. Let’s start with Soviet Union. They were communist and actually held true to these values inside their own country but did use brutal force to destroy anyone who opposed their totalitarian rule and this often led to many deaths. Even though life under Soviet Union had its ups and downs, it is the actions that they did in other countries which really gave them a negative image especially in the west, throughout most of the cold war. One of the first atrocious acts they committed was the Berlin Blockade which was an attempt to exercise their power over East Berlin. They blocked the country from receiving necessary supplies and instead of helping the workers and installing communism, they were oppressing them and this was a major event that deteriorated their image, and they even did this again with the construction of the Berlin Wall. The same thing happened in Czechoslovakia. Although they were supporting Communism in the country, they were not representing the interests of the common people. Most wanted freedom but the Soviets just rolled in their tanks to stop this from happening, first in 1948 by arranging a coup to put the unpopular communist party in power, and then they rolled in the tanks again in the Prague Spring but this time were unsuccessful in stopping the uprising. The Soviets had a habit of undermining eastern European countries through force and keeping them in the Iron Curtain which later led to popular distaste of their regime like in the Polish solidarity Movement. But you could argue that they even though they used brute force to install communism, they were in general, supporting their ideologies. Also whenever there was a communist uprising in any foreign country, they would almost always support it either politically, or by supplying arms and finance. They did this for ideological reasons usually because part of the Marxist theory is that communism is inevitable, so it was their duty to help a communist regime in trouble. They did exactly this by supporting the communist party in the Greek Civil War who were being violently oppressed by the other side (Irony) and there actually was a big social class division in Greece at the time and many people wanted communism as a solution so the soviets justly supported the movement even though it failed. They did this again in the Korean War, and the first Indo China War whose situations were pretty similar. But their greatest success was in the Chinese Civil War and when the Communists won, it drastically strengthened Soviet Russia’s Ideologies. Now let’s talk about USA. They stood for freedom and democracy and were really against the communist ideology. But throughout most of the cold war, it is impossible to depict USA as a good influence. The Marshal Plan although was one of the greatest actions USA had taken and they gave about 13 million dollars in aid to the war devastated countries in order to help them rebuild. Some might argue that they only did this to improve their trade business with these countries and to help form NATO in order to compete with the Soviets and this is partially true. Other things they did which showed they actually stood up for democracy was supporting the democratic revolutions in the Korean War, Polish Solidarity Movement, and the Velvet Revolution. They not only did they do this for freedom, but also to stop the authoritarian spread of Communism which they deemed highly undemocratic and even propagandized it as evil especially during the Berlin Airlift which is one of the most famous benevolent event that the USA orchestrated. But those were the only freedom fighting they took. Everything else they did was highly undemocratic. USA has a tendency to overthrow foreign government if they don’t please their interests. Their first major anti-freedom action was overthrowing the democratically elected government of Iran simply because the new leader decided to nationalize the oil for benefit of the Iranian People. Then they did the exact same thing in Guatemala because the interests of their fruit companies were in danger. All of these overthrows were done through US backed coups and the School of America played a key role in this, especially in Latin America. This Superpower has caused so much devastation in Latin America through that school that it was unbelievable. They would train agents in that school to do the most brutal actions necessary to â€Å"stop communism†. The US backed coups in Chile, Argentina, and Brazil, along with supporting the PRI in Mexico brought years of terror in those countries that still affect them today. All of this happened only because the elected leaders had some socialist tendencies and that was all the excuse USA needed. So much for freedom and democracy. They even illegally and secretly invaded Cuba (tried to) and Grenada and brought more horror to those places especially to Grenada whose economy was completely destroyed for a while. They used massive propaganda justify all their illegal actions especially in Vietnam which was their biggest mistake. Three million Vietnamese (mostly Civilians) died in this pointless war to stop the spread of Communism. They were so many opportunities to negotiate a peace treaty but this Superpower was too intent on dragging it on for twenty years. So many innocents were slaughtered especially during the Cambodian Genocide which was also caused by USA that lies about this war reached American citizens who then protested to stop the war, especially after the coverage of the My Lai Massacre where US soldiers killed over 300 innocent men, women, and children. The country was so anti-communist at one point that the freedom of expression of the people was destroyed during the McCarthy witch-hunt. Anyone who was associated with communism or had communist tendencies was unjustly prosecuted and this lasted for a whole six years from 1950 to 1956. It was of the greatest tragedies In US history because it greatly destroyed the image of freedom usually associated with the country. The feeling of cynicism towards both Superpowers was definitely justified because both had committed multiple atrocious acts during the cold war, but USA is still definitely in my opinion the greater of the two evils. Even thought the Soviet Union was brutally authoritarian in many cases, they still stayed true in general in their claims about supporting communism and never once did anything anti-communist. They supported multiple communist struggles across the world economically and militarily, some of these actions were morally justified and others weren’t. The USA on the other hand had overthrown so many democratically elected governments for the most unethical reasons ever that it is hard for me to associate freedom with USA. The Soviets at least kept true to their claims (brutal as they were) but the same cannot be said for the other Superpower. They did considerably a so many undemocratic and anti-freedom actions which massively deteriorated their claims in my opinion. They only positively influenced Europe but devastated the rest of the world especially Latin America who were pretty much set back a couple of decades thanks to USA’s actions. This country was involved in multiple illegal conflicts that opposed their claims and led to the senseless deaths of millions of people around the world and many more were negatively affected by these actions, especially economically. As much devastation both countries caused to the world, USA defiantly represented a greater evil in the cold war. By: Afzal Manzoor How to cite Cold War Ethical Reflection, Essay examples

Monday, May 4, 2020

Fourier Analysis of Time Series †Free Samples to Students

Question: Discuss about the Fourier Analysis of Time Series. Answer: Introduction Registration of a vehicle signifies the legal possession of the vehicle by the owner. It is the proof of ownership of the vehicle and the transfer of responsibility which comes along with owning a vehicle, to the owner. Here in this report I am going to put my focus on registrations of cars because this is a category of vehicle which is most common and is used by the public of New Zealand in larger numbers as compared to other road vehicles. The plots in the following section will commensurate the fact that the number of car registrations in New Zealand has increased since 2006 till end of 2016. A major factor for this is the population of the country. Due to immigration and rising economics of the country the population is increasing which demands more of cars on roads for commutation. With increasing income levels and standards of living in New Zealand people tend to buy their own cars and the need for public transport pushes the sales and hence the registrations of cars. With this investigation, I would like to see the relation between population growth and the increase in the car registration in New Zealand. It is important to establish the research question for any type of research study. For this research study, we want to study the time series analysis regarding the process of car registration over the time period of last ten years. We want to analyze some key parameters of the time series analysis by using the data of car registrations in the New Zealand. We have established the following research questions for this time series analysis. Is there any significant increase in the total number of registrations of cars since last ten years? Is there any significant trend found in the car registrations over the past ten years? Is there a continuous growth in the process of car registrations? For answering these questions we have to use the time series analysis for the data set regarding the car registrations in the New Zealand. It is important to draw the time series plot for the given data for understanding the nature of time series data. By plotting the given time series we understand the different types of trends appeared in the time series data, variation pattern along with time parameter T, seasonal variations, etc. Time series plot plays an important role in understanding the particular pattern of the different variables under study. This time series analysis gives an idea for the future prediction. For the given time series data for car registrations from the year 2006 to 2016, the time series plot is given as below: The above time series plot shows the upward increasing movement. There is a continuous increment in the process of car registrations with time parameter. Also, some small seasonal variation appeared in the given data. For the year 2009, there is downward movement of the time series. The reasons for this downward movement could be identified by studying different associated social and economic parameters for the year 2009. Although there is an appearance of one time downward movement of the time series, but it shows continuous upward movement. Here in the above chart the dependent variable is the number of car registrations made and the independent variable is the period 2006- 2016 each year broken in quarters. The number of cars registered is plotted against quarterly periods from 2006-2016. From the above chart, we see an overall rising trend in the number of car registrations owing to increasing number of cars bought by the people. However there have been two major decline periods in the car registrations from January 2008 to October 2008 and July 2016 to October 2016. From 2006 to 2016 there has been nearly a hike of 23% in the number of cars registered from 2200000 in 2006 to 2700000 in 2016, approximately. The dip may have been due to increasing number of road accidents which may have decreased the incentives for the public to buy own cars. Other reasons could have been increase in the prices of the cars or their complementary products such as gas or may be the cost of obtaining a registration may have surged during these periods. The general increase can be owned to increasing population of New Zealand and rising income levels which make people buy their own cars instead of using public transport for commuting. Time series features - description of seasonality On the left, we have a graph of individual seasonal effects and on the right, is the estimated seasonal effects. The seasonal plot for cars shows for each month the trend in each year. We can see that there are troughs in the July and August months especially in 2009, 2015 and 2016. Also, there was a falling pattern in the early years 2006 2010 in the month of February. The line for the year 2010 shows a stark falling scenario from the month of March which is not the general trend in the other years. In the later part of the year, each year we see a sudden spike in the car registrations. This may be because of the festive season in December and the New Year which make people buy new cars for themselves and therefore increase in the number of registrations. Therefore, we can conclude that the number of car registrations fall in the first half of the year after which it starts to rise and achieves a very high level of registration monthly during the end of each year. From the estimate d seasonal effect graph the number of car registrations fall below the average in the month of April and again go above the average during the November month. The overall effect of the surge in November and December is higher than the combined fall during the February to July period. In the upper part of the chart we see that the green line represents the submission of trend line and the seasonal variation. It shows the expected pattern when the trend line is adjusted for the seasonality in the number of car registrations. The residuals demonstrate the difference between the trend and seasonal line and the original raw data. It is the component of variations which is not explained by the trend line. The green line also represents the expected values if the seasonal patterns remain the same every year. From the thumb rule of finding the outliers in the graph we see that the dip in the October 2008 quarter lies outside the boundary of 50000. This abnormal dip may be due to the rise in the prices of cars, car products and/or the registration fee or increase in the number of accidents. The average car registrations rise from over 2200000 to approximately 2700000. There is nearly a rise of 23% overall. Towards the extremes of the residuals we see that there are greate r fluctuations as compared to the middle section. This suggests that the rise in the car registrations from the 2015 2016 period has been greater than the trend and there is little explanation of that surge captured by the seasonality and trend. Forecast - forecast plot and table The method of Holt-Winters for the prediction purpose deals with the both trend and seasonal variations. There are additive and multiplicative versions for this method. The use of additive or multiplicative methods is depends on the characteristics of the particular time series. The Holt-Winter methods for analysis of time series is nothing but the extension of the single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing. We know that the moving average methods are not applicable at all time and we need to use advanced analysis of given time series. Holt-Winters additive time series plot is given as below: In the above graph, we see the predictions and the bandwidth of the car registrations expected during the following years. The dark red line shows the predicted values of the number of car registrations whereas the zone shows the range within which the actual registration is expected to limit itself. Any value within the band is explainable whereas outside the band would be majorly be due to some reason not captured in seasonality and trend. Based on the predictions I believe that the values of car registrations will be in the range of 2600000 to 2900000 approximately. From the chart, we can infer that the fit of the model is poor in the quarters during the years 2008-2010 and again during 2015-2016 because of significant differences between the fitted line and the raw data line. On the contrary the fitted model accurately captures the actual during the 2006-2007 and end 2013 till early 2015 periods. Conclusion From the model fitting and the time series analysis we can infer an increasing trend in the number of car registrations with the years. It is very logical that the with increasing population of New Zealand the number of car registrations also increase owing to a greater demand for cars and greater demand for better standard of living with increasing employment and income levels. We also conclude that the major chunk of the rise in car registrations take place in the end of a year when there is greater increase in the car registrations than the fall experienced during the mid-quarters. With knowledge of increasing demand for cars the car industry and other related industries can plan their production levels and pricings to meet the demand and increase the supply. This information will help in better planning both at corporate and government levels. The government of New Zealand basis this analysis can prepare well for the future rises in the number of cars on road and provide better r oad infrastructure. References Bloomfield, P. (1976). Fourier analysis of time series: An introduction. New York: Wiley Bollerslev, T., Engle, R. F. and Nelson, D. B. (1994). ARCH models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. IV. Ed. by Engle, R. F. and McFadden, D. L., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 29593038. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Revised Edition, Holden-Day, San Francisco. Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. (1991). Time Series: Theory and Methods, 2nd Edition, Springer-Verlag, New York. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of UK inflation. Econometrica, 50, 9871007. Shumway, R. H. (1988). Applied statistical time series analysis. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall